Structured Analytical Thinking


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We are bombarded with information much of it designed to scare us or piss us off. If you're one of those that stray from your bubble then you probably found conflicting information too. So you're probably scared, angry and confused ... congratulations! You're a freethinker.

 

So I'm going to collect resources about structured analysis in this thread. Starting with this video from the SANS Institute which goes over some of common mental traps we can encounter in our thinking and number of structured analytical techniques outside of analysis of competing hypothesis.

 

But if you take nothing else away from this video remember thinking clearly requires adequate sleep.

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1 hour ago, John said:

 

We are bombarded with information much of it designed to scare us or piss us off. If you're one of those that stray from your bubble then you probably found conflicting information too. So you're probably scared, angry and confused ... congratulations! You're a freethinker.

 

So I'm going to collect resources about structured analysis in this thread. Starting with this video from the SANS Institute which goes over some of common mental traps we can encounter in our thinking and number of structured analytical techniques outside of analysis of competing hypothesis.

 

But if you take nothing else away from this video remember thinking clearly requires adequate sleep.

 

 

 

As you say, fear and rage.  This is the click bait generation -- served up in the great echo chamber of social media.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Jonathan H. B. Lobl said:

As you say, fear and rage.  This is the click bait generation -- served up in the great echo chamber of social media.

 

60% to 70% of young people (<18 years old) are getting less than 7 hours of sleep which makes them prime targets for manipulation.

 

 

Another video, this one from Janes which is used through out the national security community for their Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) products.

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A bit of news, from Janes, about a new USAF "Spectrum Warfare Wing".

 

Quote

“The competition in the electromagnetic spectrum is more important than ever before ... [and] if we lose the fight in the [electromagnetic spectrum], we will lose the fights in all other domains. We are here to make sure that does not happen,” said the newly minted wing commander USAF Colonel William Young.

 

That's full spectrum dominance speak. Eglin Air Force Base has a couple special operation groups so maybe they won't be operating within the US.

 

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/usaf-launches-new-spectrum-warfare-unit

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On 7/5/2021 at 9:04 AM, John said:

 

60% to 70% of young people (<18 years old) are getting less than 7 hours of sleep which makes them prime targets for manipulation.

 

 

Another video, this one from Janes which is used through out the national security community for their Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) products.

 

 

It is the follies of youth.  Young people like to burn the candle at both ends.  You know.  Young and stupid.  When I was that age, I knew everything.  Now, not so much.

 

:umbrella:

 

 

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On 7/5/2021 at 4:14 PM, John said:

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Not easy finding this image from the first video even with the book.

 

Which book (so I don't have to watch an half hour of video; I can read faster than he speaks...)?

 

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3 hours ago, RevBogovac said:

 

Which book (so I don't have to watch an half hour of video; I can read faster than he speaks...)?

 

 

Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis / by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson.

ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8
LCN: JK468.I6H478 2010
DDN: 327.12—dc22

 

Not cheap new as it is used as textbook.

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On 7/9/2021 at 1:36 PM, John said:

 

Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis / by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson.

ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8
LCN: JK468.I6H478 2010
DDN: 327.12—dc22

 

Not cheap new as it is used as textbook.

 

 

Cool, thanks! 

 

 

EDIT: found the 2014 edition online: https://1lib.nl/book/5830972/941ee0?id=5830972&secret=941ee0

 

 

Edited by RevBogovac
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  • 2 weeks later...

First up, A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. Detailed look at individual stuctured analytical techniques (SAT)covering when to use, value added, methods and an example. (Would bet this is written by RAND.)

 

https://www.cia.gov/static/955180a45afe3f5013772c313b16face/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf

 

Second, Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence. There's a couple of useful tables in this paper pairing SAT with the bias it addresses.

 

https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=804875

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