Structured Analytical Thinking

[John]

 

We are bombarded with information much of it designed to scare us or piss us off. If you're one of those that stray from your bubble then you probably found conflicting information too. So you're probably scared, angry and confused ... congratulations! You're a freethinker.

 

So I'm going to collect resources about structured analysis in this thread. Starting with this video from the SANS Institute which goes over some of common mental traps we can encounter in our thinking and number of structured analytical techniques outside of analysis of competing hypothesis.

 

But if you take nothing else away from this video remember thinking clearly requires adequate sleep.

[Jonathan H. B. Lobl]

1 hour ago, John said:

 

We are bombarded with information much of it designed to scare us or piss us off. If you're one of those that stray from your bubble then you probably found conflicting information too. So you're probably scared, angry and confused ... congratulations! You're a freethinker.

 

So I'm going to collect resources about structured analysis in this thread. Starting with this video from the SANS Institute which goes over some of common mental traps we can encounter in our thinking and number of structured analytical techniques outside of analysis of competing hypothesis.

 

But if you take nothing else away from this video remember thinking clearly requires adequate sleep.

 

 

 

As you say, fear and rage.  This is the click bait generation -- served up in the great echo chamber of social media.

 

 

[John]

8 hours ago, Jonathan H. B. Lobl said:

As you say, fear and rage.  This is the click bait generation -- served up in the great echo chamber of social media.

 

60% to 70% of young people (<18 years old) are getting less than 7 hours of sleep which makes them prime targets for manipulation.

 

 

Another video, this one from Janes which is used through out the national security community for their Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) products.

[John]

A bit of news, from Janes, about a new USAF "Spectrum Warfare Wing".

 

Quote

“The competition in the electromagnetic spectrum is more important than ever before ... [and] if we lose the fight in the [electromagnetic spectrum], we will lose the fights in all other domains. We are here to make sure that does not happen,” said the newly minted wing commander USAF Colonel William Young.

 

That's full spectrum dominance speak. Eglin Air Force Base has a couple special operation groups so maybe they won't be operating within the US.

 

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/usaf-launches-new-spectrum-warfare-unit

[John]

 

Not easy finding this image from the first video even with the book.

[Jonathan H. B. Lobl]

On 7/5/2021 at 9:04 AM, John said:

 

60% to 70% of young people (<18 years old) are getting less than 7 hours of sleep which makes them prime targets for manipulation.

 

 

Another video, this one from Janes which is used through out the national security community for their Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) products.

 

 

It is the follies of youth.  Young people like to burn the candle at both ends.  You know.  Young and stupid.  When I was that age, I knew everything.  Now, not so much.

 

 

 

[John]

A nice read from the Central Intelligence Agency on Structured Analytical Techniques.

 

Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis

 

https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=20945

[RevBogovac]

On 7/5/2021 at 4:14 PM, John said:

[img]

 

Not easy finding this image from the first video even with the book.

 

Which book (so I don't have to watch an half hour of video; I can read faster than he speaks...)?

 

[John]

3 hours ago, RevBogovac said:

 

Which book (so I don't have to watch an half hour of video; I can read faster than he speaks...)?

 

 

Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis / by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson.

ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8
LCN: JK468.I6H478 2010
DDN: 327.12—dc22

 

Not cheap new as it is used as textbook.

[RevBogovac]

On 7/9/2021 at 1:36 PM, John said:

 

Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis / by Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson.

ISBN 978-1-60871-018-8
LCN: JK468.I6H478 2010
DDN: 327.12—dc22

 

Not cheap new as it is used as textbook.

 

 

Cool, thanks! 

 

 

EDIT: found the 2014 edition online: https://1lib.nl/book/5830972/941ee0?id=5830972&secret=941ee0

 

 

Edited July 12, 2021 by RevBogovac

[John]

7 hours ago, RevBogovac said:

 

 

Cool, thanks! 

 

 

EDIT: found the 2014 edition online: https://1lib.nl/book/5830972/941ee0?id=5830972&secret=941ee0

 

 

 

Excellent. 👍

[John]

First up, A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. Detailed look at individual stuctured analytical techniques (SAT)covering when to use, value added, methods and an example. (Would bet this is written by RAND.)

 

https://www.cia.gov/static/955180a45afe3f5013772c313b16face/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf

 

Second, Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence. There's a couple of useful tables in this paper pairing SAT with the bias it addresses.

 

https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=804875

[John]

First up, Intelligent data analysis : from data gathering to data

comprehension. One chapter defines a number statistical terms, understanding the language is first step to avoiding the manipulation. Definition seem on point and dead simple.

 

This book is in the wild if you know where to look.

 

Quote

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Gupta, Deepak, editor.
Title: Intelligent data analysis : from data gathering to data
comprehension / edited by Dr. Deepak Gupta, Dr. Siddhartha
Bhattacharyya, Dr. Ashish Khanna, Ms. Kalpna Sagar.
Description: Hoboken, NJ, USA : Wiley, 2020. | Series: The Wiley series in
intelligent signal and data processing | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019056735 (print) | LCCN 2019056736 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119544456 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119544449 (adobe pdf) | ISBN
9781119544463 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Data mining. | Computational intelligence.
Classification: LCC QA76.9.D343 I57435 2020 (print) | LCC QA76.9.D343
(ebook) | DDC 006.3/12–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019056735
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019056736

 

 

Second up, Strategic intelligence : a handbook for practitioners, managers, and users. Strategic intelligence analysis looks at the big picture. Example, the little picture: The US has reach 50% vaccination! The Big Picture: The US represents 4.9% of the world population and herd immunity requires 90% vaccination of the world population. One of these pictures would lead to a much better strategy in the borderless world of globalization.

 

Quote

When we talk about developing a big picture, the phrase we use is “establishing a conceptual model (or framework).” This is a way of describing the characteristics and features of the area or topic under intelligence interest. Regardless of the type of intelligence product required by a client, placing the intelligence problem in its appropriate context is pivotal to the future development of the intelligence process, and it is this conceptual focus that facilitates all further activity.

 

 

Also in the wild.

 

Quote

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
McDowell, Don, 1939–
Strategic intelligence : a handbook for practitioners, managers, and users / Don
McDowell. — Rev. ed.
p. cm. — (Scarecrow professional intelligence education series ; no. 5)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8108-6184-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN-10: 0-8108-6184-4 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-8108-6285-2 (ebook)
ISBN-10: 0-8108-6285-9 (ebook)
1. Intelligence service. 2. Law enforcement. 3. Business intelligence–Management. I.
Title.
JF1525.I6M33 2009
327.12–dc22 2008034020

 

[Jonathan H. B. Lobl]

Sometimes even the raw data are slippery.  Government statements keeps saying how many people have had "at least one dose" of the mRNA vaccines.  In a two dose system, one dose is a failure.  That means the real numbers are much worse.  it sounds better to talk about the one dose cases, but it's a dishonest manipulation.

 

When the raw facts are a lie, interpretation is a problem.

 

 

 

 

 

[John]

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is becoming a real problem for nation states. OSINT is undermining the official narrative. Everyone is capable of critical thinking however it takes practice to master it. This whole thread is about giving you the tools to undermine the official narrative. Here's another tool, Open Source Intelligence Tools and Resources Handbook. 

 

https://i-intelligence.eu/uploads/public-documents/OSINT_Handbook_June-2018_Final.pdf

[cuchulain]

Have to download when I get home

[Jonathan H. B. Lobl]

1 hour ago, John said:

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is becoming a real problem for nation states. OSINT is undermining the official narrative. Everyone is capable of critical thinking however it takes practice to master it. This whole thread is about giving you the tools to undermine the official narrative. Here's another tool, Open Source Intelligence Tools and Resources Handbook. 

 

https://i-intelligence.eu/uploads/public-documents/OSINT_Handbook_June-2018_Final.pdf

 

 

Most of the time, when I see mention of critical thinking skills, the context is religion.  As you say, official narrative.  I think the same applies to government propaganda, political party propaganda -- and various personality cults.  The rabbit hole is deep.  Commercial advertising for laundry detergent, breakfast cereal, fast food......   The sheep do love their shepherds.         

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John]

Quote

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise."

 

F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Crack-Up

 

I certainly would not knock anyone who can thinking critically see the odds are hopeless and through whatever religion beliefs persevere to make it otherwise. Belief and critical thinking are diametrically opposed but it's our actions for which we are judged not the thoughts that lead to them. Structured Analytic Techniques can only get one so far, in hopeless situations a bit of crazy goes a long way.

 

If sheep were over worked, underpaid, and fed a constant stream bullsh!t, they'd probably slaughter the shepherd in short order. Thank God we're civilized. Eh?

 

[Jonathan H. B. Lobl]

5 hours ago, John said:

 

I certainly would not knock anyone who can thinking critically see the odds are hopeless and through whatever religion beliefs persevere to make it otherwise. Belief and critical thinking are diametrically opposed but it's our actions for which we are judged not the thoughts that lead to them. Structured Analytic Techniques can only get one so far, in hopeless situations a bit of crazy goes a long way.

 

If sheep were over worked, underpaid, and fed a constant stream bullsh!t, they'd probably slaughter the shepherd in short order. Thank God we're civilized. Eh?

 

 

 

 

In my younger days, I thought that there was something romantic about working for a lost cause.  I don't know if I have become wiser, or just more tired.  I don't do that any more.  I have lowered my expectations.  I am not going to end suffering in the world.  I still donate blood.

 

In the end, it's the small things that matter.  I make the world a better place when I take a shower.  At least it's a better place for the people around me.  It's easy to love humanity.  Dealing with people is more difficult.